The State Of The Market - September 2007

I hadn't realized how long it had been since I made a post until I finally got all of the numbers together for September's State Of The Market report.  Other than the Webmail.us post, it had been quite some time.  Sorry about that, but hope all is well for everyone.  I've been doing a first-time home buyers seminar with Salem Financial the last few nights at Virginia Tech, and we advertised it specifically to graduate students.  I was really impressed at how intuitive those guys were - they were reading the same negative media reports you and I read, but they were also very excited about the possibility of owning a home in the New River Valley.  It was really encouraging to see how someone with no background in owning a home was able to sift through all of the junk out there and see the real picture.  I hope they follow through with their dream of home ownership ...

Last month I said I really had no idea what the market was doing ... this month, I think I've got a better idea.  You see, every year we go through a slow period in the fall and winter in real estate.  The office is typically a little quieter as some of my colleagues take vacation, there aren't as many new properties being put on the market as there are in other months, and some agents take the time to catch up on continuing education.  (Speaking of the office, don't forget to catch the funniest show on TV tonight at 9pm).  But if you look at the chart below, you'll see why we at the NRVLiving Team are expecting this to be a busy time over the next couple of months.

Looking to buy a home?  Call us, now is your time.  The next few months will likely be in your favor, as properties will sit quiet and sellers will grow anxious.  It happens every year, and this year will be noticeable because interest rates are staying low (Angela Anderson at Salem Financial is still quoting rates of 6.25% to qualified buyers) and properties are abundant.  Take advantage of that ... as I said last month, we haven't had a true buyers market in quite a few years and so it's nice to see this shift.  It usually happens every 10 years or so, and we'll see it adjust back to sellers again in the future. 

So look at the chart.  Blacksburg's absorption rate doubled from last month, and virtually every other area had significant gains.  As a whole, the market average is 9.45 months worth of inventory - again, we're looking at how long it would take to sell the existing residential inventory in a particular area, if nothing else came on the market until supply was exhausted.  Anything over 5 months is typically a buyers' market, and anything less than 5 months is typically a seller's market.   

Area	Active	Sold	Absorption Rate	Buyer/Seller Market
Blacksburg	210	25	8.4 Months	Buyer
Christiansburg	286	36	7.94 Months	Buyer
Montgomery County	68	10	6.8 Months	Buyer
Floyd County	90	10	9 Months	Buyer
Giles County	104	8	13 Months	Buyer
Pulaski	138	35	3.94 Months	Seller
Dublin	115	19	6.05 Months	Buyer
Radford	82	4	20.5 Months	Buyer

Take Note - this is not a bad time to be considering buying or selling real estate.  If you're selling, we need to  talk about ways to really get you the right kind of exposure for your home.  We should be adjusting our marketing to be specific for your house, not just "'cause this is the way we've always done it".  I'm still taking listings because people are still moving - but we need to be realistic and patient, among other things.  And if you're buying, we need to talk.  Opportunities abound out there, let's take advantage of them.  And finally, I want to repeat what I said last month:

"Watch the mortgage industry over the next few months.  It's important to remember - the shake-up we're seeing is primarily NOT among reputable lenders like Bank of America, ABN-AMRO and Wells Fargo (all lenders that our recommended mortgage brokers use).  Instead, it's among Fly By Night shops like Lend2U.com and ShakeYourPockets.ca ... I made those up of course, but check out the Implode-O-Meter for a complete list of firms going out of business, or that have already closed up shop.  The vast majority of these were funding subprime or no credit/no problem loans and it's caught up with them!  Conventional loan products are STILL the best, don't overlook them!  If you don't know what kind of loan you have, feel free to call me and my team at (540) 552-6500 or email me and we can help you find out!  If you'd like more specific data about this report, or anything else pertaining to real estate in the New River Valley, don't hesitate to contact us by email or Instant Messenger!"

Happy buying and selling!

Comments

[Jack Campbell]

It's interesting to read what the markets were like in '07. Just a reminder how quickly times change.

Jack Campbell - Carlsbad Homes

[home buyer]

2010 was kinda a bizarre year for the mortgage market. In the first half of the year, you had a decent number of home sales keeping mortgages for purchases stable, thanks to the home buyer credit. In the second half of the year, that changed as demand crumbled when the credit was withdrawn. At the same time, you had very low mortgage interest rates throughout much of the year cause a mini-refinancing boom. 2011 will look very different, as the housing demand continues to struggle and mortgage interest rates have begun rising.